Publications
A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis (with Adriana Lleras-Muney), Demography:2022
We propose a parsimonious model of lifetime mortality which provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for human cohorts since 1816. The model sheds light on the dynamics behind many phenomena documented in the literature, including (i) the existence and evolution of mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in- utero shocks, (iii) persistent or “scarring” effects of wars and (iv) mortality displacement after large temporary shocks such as extreme weather. NBER WP IMF WP IMF Research Perspectives [model][replication]
Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance (with Pierre Cahuc, Stéphane Carcillo, Bérengère Patault), Journal of the European Economic Association, Sept. 2023
Judge bias has statistically significant effects on the survival, employment, and sales of small, low-performing firms. However, we find that the uncertainty associated with the actual dispersion of judge bias is small and non-significant impact for average outcomes. Our study relies on an automated text analysis of more than 145,000 Appeal court rulings, combined with administrative firm-level records covering the whole universe of French firms. IMF WP VoxEU
Working Papers
How Costly Are Cartels? (with Ludovic Panon) [under review]
Recent studies find large economic effects of size-related markup dispersion on aggregate productivity. We study the cost of cartels in a static oligopoly model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous markups, and collusion. Cartels can amplify or dampen misallocation, by charging supracompetitive markups and reallocating demand towards non-colluding firms. We find that standard competitive oligopoly models understate the cost of markups under reason- able values for the intensity of collusion and cartel composition configurations. Using French micro data, our baseline calibration suggests that breaking down cartels would increase aggregate productivity by 1.1% and welfare by 2%. IMF WP Vox EU Les Echos
Harnessing Satellite Data to Improve Social Assistance Targeting in the Eastern Caribbean (with Sophia Chen, Ryu Matsuura, and Joana Pereira)
In the Eastern Caribbean, social assistance targeting is constrained by limited data and the need for rapid support in times of large economic and natural disaster shocks. We leverage recent advances in machine learning and satellite imagery processing to propose an implementable strategy in the face of these constraints. We show that local well-being can be predicted with high accuracy in the Eastern Caribbean region using satellite data and that such predictions can be used to improve targeting by reducing aggregation bias, better allocating resources across areas. IMF WP
Inferring Capital-Labor Substitution from Firm Size Distortions [under revision]
I estimate the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor at the firm-level by leveraging size-dependent policies. Using distortions in firm-level capital intensity and the amount of bunching in the firm size distribution near the policy thresholds, I find that firm-level production functions are close to Leontieff and the aggregate elasticity in the economy around 0.3 at the medium-term horizon, once within- and between- sector reallocation channels are taken into account. In addition, I provide direct evidence for evasion by exploiting the discrepancies between two comprehensive administrative datasets: under-reporting surges around the thresholds and is a major driver of the apparent distortions.
Diversification in Sight? A Macroeconomic Assessment of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 (with Zamid Alighishiev) [Revise and resubmit]
Saudi Arabia embarked in 2021 on a large-scale National Investment Strategy (NIS) designed to lift potential GDP growth by diversifying the economy. This article describes the strategy and uses a dynamic model to assess its potential macroeconomic implications.
The Dynamics of Trade Integration and Fragmentation in Latin America (with Rafael Machado Parente) [IMF Working paper forthcoming]
While the region has made some progress on trade openness, it continues to be held back due largely to poor infrastructure, burdensome customs clearance procedures, as well as relatively high tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade. The paper quantifies the potential gains from removing these obstacles and studies the potential impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on Latin America’s trade flows. IMF Blog Bloomberg Línea
Work in Progress
Active and Passive Antitrust Policies (with Semih Üslü)
How does antitrust policy shape business concentration and growth dynamics? We investigate the evolution of an arbitrary firm size distribution in a macroeconomic model in which heterogeneous firms can grow organically or acquire competitors. In particular, we analyze the impact of threshold-based merger guidelines on concentration levels and productivity growth. Passive antitrust policies can set the economy on an explosive path characterized by increasing size dispersion and a non-stationary distribution of firms.
The Cost of Economic Cartels in LAC (with Ludovic Panon)
We investigate the role of collusion in Latin American economies and, in particular, show how economic cartels increase markups and result in lower aggregate productivity using the framework of Moreau and Panon (2019).
Natural Resource Contracts in Sub-Saharan Africa: an Empirical Analysis (with Antoine Arnoud and Abraham Lartey)
We use automated text analysis to shed light on the role played by various contract provisions — about tax exemptions, environmental or social protection, local employment, arbitration, etc. — in explaining mining revenues flows discrepancies.
Greening the IMF Quotas: a Proposal for Paris Alignment (with Shan He and Mengxue Wang)
Migration and Labor Policies in the Eastern Caribbean
In island economies with large diasporas and out-migration flows, migration and labor policies are intertwined. This paper provides a framework to analyze the various channels at play and possible policy options.
Labor Market Dynamics in Latin America (with Camila Casas)
Quel est l’impact du pouvoir d’appreciation des juges sur les indemnites de licenciement? (with Pierre Cahuc, Stéphane Carcillo, and Bérengère Patault), Droit Social, Sept. 2022
Do French companies under-report their workforce at 49 employees to get around the law? (with P. Askenazy, T. Breda, and V. Pecheu), IPP Policy Brief n°82